47%
- By Simple Politiks
- 5 October, 2012
- 19 Comments
You’ll have to forgive me for touching on topics that have already passed their expiration dates, I haven’t written a single post in over a month. I know the mainstream news and Obama’s political ads have already made everybody well aware of Romney’s interesting comments. Just bear with me, there are some things that you might not have learned about these statistics.
Romney says that 47% of America doesn’t pay an income tax, so let’s start there. If we look at this CNN Article, we can easily see that Romney was fairly accurate with that percentage (the article reported 46.4%, the breakdown is below).
So why were Romney’s comments so bad? Because of how he twists this portion of the population to be government dependent and therefore not worthy of his time. In reality, it isn’t that odd to see only half of the nation paying an income tax. Sure, initially it may surprise you, but when you look at other statistics about America’s labor force, it makes sense. Here’s the most recent statistic about the size of America’s labor force:
In September 2012 the Labor Force was roughly 155 million people.
For those of you who don’t know, the labor force is the number of employed adults PLUS the number of unemployed adults. So with an 8% unemployment rate, the number of working adults is about 142.6 million. I wonder how closely that resembles 46.4%…
U.S. population in 2012 is a little over 314 million people. 142.6 million (the working adults) divided by 314 million (entire population) is…
45.4%
That’s pretty damn close. Such a slight difference could easily be accounted for by the margin of error in the studies. The BLS census which determines the labor force and unemployment rate, for instance, only has a sample size of 60,000 yet it represents the entire country.
So now we know where the number comes from and it makes sense. After all, only people with an income can contribute to the income tax! Now the only thing that we have to look at is WHY roughly half of the nation does not fall into the category of “working adults”. There are obviously some people who dodge their taxes (both poor and rich) which drive the percentage down, but those people are few and far between. All of the unemployed, however, are certainly dependent on the government. And the true unemployment of America is much higher than 8%. Discouraged workers (adults who have stopped searching for a job) are not counted in the unemployment rate that we typically hear about. The real unemployment rate includes discouraged workers, so it paints a more accurate picture in terms of unemployment in America.
In addition to the unemployed, there are millions of people who are employed but still unable to live above the poverty line. I believe 40-something million people live with below the poverty line in America. So we can safely say that these 40-something million people are dependent on the government in some way, certainly more than any other Americans. But what about the other dozens of millions of people? 40-something million people doesn’t even account for 20% of the U.S. population. Who else is included in the 47% statistic?
The other people (over half of the people who don’t pay income taxes) fall into these categories:
- Under the age of 16
- Retired
- In an institution (full time student, military, psych ward, etc…)
- Potentially additional smaller categories I’m unaware of (I’m no wiz at Economics just yet!)
Excluding the unemployed, everybody else is retired, studying in school, too young, and so on. Some people pay the income tax in this group, but most are not eligible for it. So Romney just told all of these perfectly normal citizens of America that they aren’t even worth his time. That annoys me to a great deal.
I don’t want Obama to win this upcoming race… But honestly, Romney, think before you speak. There is no justification for distorting information because you don’t think anyone will hear what you say behind closed doors. Facts are facts. Distortions and misleading information… That’s just trash. And it always will be.
Copyright © 2013
Interesting take on this topic; I hadn’t heard anyone else talk about the fact that the unemployment rate nearly matches the 47%.
What you did leave out, though, are the many working poor. These people work full time (or more) and still earn too little to be required to pay the federal income tax (although they still pay the federal payroll tax and all state and local taxes).
I just can’t get over the unmitigated gall of someone with offshore tax shelters putting down those who pay no taxes…..!
And I’m not voting for either of these corporate shills: Jill Stein all the way for me!
Oh I included them as well! I just didn’t spend too much time with it. They fall into the category of people under/around the poverty line who still have jobs.
Thanks for commenting! And good for you, keep voting for the candidate that resonates best with your views most (even if it means they’re unpopular).
I don’t understand how an individual that has aspirations to become president could be so slanderous. I am not unemployed but I am offended by his tactic. It’s as if every person that is out of a job is bleeding this country dry and that just isn’t so. Not to mention the fact that the 47% does not account for Obama supporters as a whole and yet the way Romney paints it (maybe this is just in my mind, but) those that are dependent on government support Obama, and those that aren’t can be persuaded one way or the other.
While I don’t share your voting view for this upcoming election, I do appreciate your ability to step back and assess a situation for what it is… not just listening to jargon that has little to no actual basis.
And what’s even worse about his statements is that he’s attacking the members of society that are incapable of working now, like the elderly or those who are too young. Even university students fit the picture if they don’t have a job on campus. All of these different groups make up a huge portion of that 47%.
So I don’t understand it either, Sonya. I don’t like Romney too much anyway… I’m probably going to vote for Gary Johnson despite his third party status. Either him or Romney. But regardless, I’m glad you can appreciate my opinions despite my political stance in the big picture. I try to present rational arguments and real facts to people so that a member of any party will find it tough to disagree.
I think these percentages don’t tell as much as people want to think. My wife is a vet who is working occasional shifts, so as to have more time with our son and to oversee the construction of our new home. As the overseer she has saved us at least as much money (in up-front costs, not even to mention the doubling of the cost had it become mortgage payments) as she would have earned by working those same hours. How is that expressed in terms of employment? Because she sure has a second job that earns us money by saving it, but how is that expressed in gross statistical political language?
Hmm I’m no expert when it comes to economics (which is what you’re referring to when you say “gross statistical political language” haha). I’m actually just in Intro to Microeconomics and Intro to Macroeconomics right now. So with my limited knowledge on the subject I do know that anyone who is working even one hour is considered employed. There are certain conditions to satisfy the category underemployed, and your wife may fall into that, but I’m not sure. And I believe the underemployed aren’t usually included in general BLS studies. I could be wrong though.
So to summarize, as long as your wife is currently working (even if it is 1 hour a week) she is considered to be employed.
Hey thanks for liking my blog post. You have a fine blog yourself!
Thank you!
Thanks!
Romney shocks us only because he voices the perceptions of an extremely elite class that so rarely reveals its genuine ignorance about at least half the country. They really do lead dangerously insular lives – the term ‘culturally deprived’ applies more aptly to them than to the nation’s poor.
I fear that a Romney victory means an underclass isolated in the core of abandoned, decaying cities, deprived of health care, and with public assistance cut to the bone. The speed with which neglected urban infrastructure decays is amazing! I sure hope I’m wrong, though.
If Romney does win, I know I can count on your eagle eye to do what a free press does, S.P. – and while you’re providing fair and balanced coverage, I’ll be running screaming into the night.
Heh, heh.
P.S. Your blog has such a professional look that it could be included in a professional portfolio as is.
I think the scariest part of Romney comes from what he’s willing to say to get himself into the White House. He’s trying to please everyone to get the vote and that causes a lot of uncertainty/confusion among the electorate who are on the fence about Obama or Romney.
No matter who wins I have a bad feeling for our government funded programs… Even the big ones like Social Security and Medicare. Maybe not next election, or the one after that, but if our debt continues to grow as a percentage of GDP then I’m not sure if my generation will be able to benefit from those programs. I think if SS stays the way it is right now then it will be bankrupt in over 20 years. There’s going to be a lot of reform with government sometime in the near future and it will most likely be difficult to adjust to initially. If I’m right then I hope it doesn’t cause too much harm. I could easily be wrong, though. What do I know? I’m just a random college kid haha.
Hahaha thank you very much! I’m glad you trust me to point out the things that others try to avoid. And I’m glad you think so! Who knows, maybe it will help me get a job down the road.
I wish you were my Govt. Teacher.
Haha that’s a great compliment, I really appreciate it.
You completely missed the point and have bought into the media hype. First where the 47% comes from is a bit of a mystery and really quite unimportant. It could actually be 47% of the voters, it could be 47% of otherwise potential tax payers.
The point has little to do with 47% of anything and more to do with “not worth the effort.” But, this is completely taken out of context and audience. He was speaking specifically to a group who were asking quesitons about the focus of his campaign.
This was campaign strategy, not a governance issue. He is merely saying, that he is not going to target a group of people who have no interest in the ideology of those whom he represents and it does not matter what he says to them, even if contradictory to his own platform, they are not going to make vote for him no matter what, and he is not going to compromise his message and the people he does represent just to make an appeal to people whose agenda is to perpetuate dependency on the government. (Wow, that was one sentence, not like me) It would be like preaching keeping the Sabboth to Hitler.
Consequently, he cannot worry about them, as in an appeal to them, a compromising double standard appeal of loving the one you are with, jsut to get votes. It would be disingenuous. Romney is no phoney, even though in politics, the discretion of tactfulness gets quite close to having duplicity.
In all my rantings to date, I have been campaigning against Obama, but after hearing Romney and reading more about his private life, my focus has gone from a campaign against one person to campaigning for another. To this point I would have voted for Donald Duck over Obama, and not just because he is white. But, now I see that if America does not elect Romney we will have missed out on a truly great person of vision, competence, leadership and yes, compassion.
where is spell check when I need it?
I don’t think I have, Gasbagger. Firstly, there will obviously be a large group of voters that are going to vote for Obama no matter what. There are always those factions in each party’s electorate. The reason why I wrote this post about the 47% comment was simply to explain why Romney is grossly generalizing anyone who doesn’t pay an income tax as dependent on the government. So dependent that they will not even consider voting for him. But that’s just not true. This 47%, or whatever the actual number really is, is comprised of the elderly and the full time students and, yes, even the people too young to even vote. Obviously the unemployed/underemployed are included in this number as well. I even mentioned that the 40-something million people in America under the poverty line are dependent on the government in some way. But 40-something million doesn’t equal 47%. Even 80-something million doesn’t.
So while I understand the point that Romney was trying to make (and fully agree with him to some extent), I cannot just let him say misleading statements. It just doesn’t make any sense when you look at who the 47% is. Granted, it is impossible to get a perfect demographic, but it is also easy to get rough estimates to try to make sense of it(which can be seen in my post).
Side-note:
Good to have ya back, Gasbagger!
…. “a truly great person of vision, competence, leadership and yes, compassion.”…
Oh YES! That is the only way to describe someone whose most treasured beliefs include knowing that the Cherokee, Mohawk, Seminole & Sioux are “really” the lost tribes of Israel, who got to America a few thousand years ago, by boat. That his “Magic Underpants” are, as I type” protecting him from witches and demons. That this life is nowhere near as important as the “next life” and that all Jesus is waiting for is a total war in the Middle-East… then, He returns….(wait for it)… to America. As it stands HE awaits, in the wings, on the planet Kolrab, in a distant galaxy.
So, my only question is…. Why did you develop such an aversion to rational thought, science and objective reality?
Gasbagger – I have heard disturbing rumors from a credible source that under his little blue jacket, Donald Duck’s feathers are…black!
Question 1) Does he still count as a white duck?
Question 2) If not, would you vote for Daisy Duck?
Thanks, GB
So does Gasbagger have a blog? I like the way he thinks.
Yes, he does! Although I urge you to read my response to his comment. Romney does indeed make it very clear who the 47% is… Simply those who don’t pay an income tax in the country.
Anyways, you should still check out his blog. He’s been a major contributor to the comments section of myriad posts on this website. I always enjoy sparring with his right leaning philosophy and there have been many instances in which we have agreed.
Click on this link: http://gasbagger.wordpress.com/
The link may not be blue and underlined. You can still click on it. Enjoy.